The Math for Mitt

The "fight" for the republican nomination is over, done, finished. If you would like to keep up with the current hard numbers as they emerged and to play a bit with the speculative "what if's" Here is a neat little interactive delegate counter that will allow you to fantasize about any and all possibilities - none of which rationally lead to anything other than Obama vs. Romney in November.

For me I will be ignoring the remainder of the primary season unless, as they say, a candidate gets caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. But I would like to leave each and every American citizen and those watching from around the world with this thought - there are actually hundreds of thousands of voters who actually think a woman hating, religious bigot like Rick Santorum should be President of the United States. That thought makes me cringe more than even the nightmare of Dan Quayle a heartbeat from the oval office.

Political Signage

With the ability to post a picture on Facebook available to anyone with an internet connection there is a lot of political commentary that crawls through the photoshop process before leaking out into the collective unconscious of the cyber cesspool. Most of the messages are silly or mean; partisan and generally wrong. I tend to rate them on a scale from flat-out stupid to deliciously devious. 

But every once in a great while one comes along that I just can't dismiss. I mean when politicians get so outrageous that they make both sides of their own inane argument, you just gotta marvel at what we produce in the way of political candidates. He is a brilliant example thus just defies rebuttal.

Mississippi For Instance

Yes, in Mississippi Rick Santorum got a couple more votes than the other guys.

Yes, between them the ultra-conservative Santorum and the slimy not as conservative Newt Gingrich got over 64% of the vote yesterday.

No, all of you liberals and other sane voters there is no need to worry. The wacko fringe of the republican party is not about to take over the country. Here are the numbers.

2012 Republican Primary Mississippi
Santorum         93,200
Gingrich           88,700
Romney            86,000
Paul                  12,500

Total Vote       283,000

2008 National Election Mississippi
McCain           687,266
Obama            520,864

Total Vote     1,224,000


Only the heavily motivated conservative vote turned out yesterday. The great middle of the voting public is really not "anyone but Romney" they are "anyone but Romney except not these guys." Given an actual general election between Obama and Santorum or Gingrich there are some red states that will go for the republican party but the margins will be much smaller than those McCain numbers from '08 and the overwhelming majority  of the country will be blue.

This Obama reelection scenario does not make me particularly happy but I have to admit the potential for a strong third party showing in '12 is being slowly eroded by the republican road show. The more these guys talk, the more independent and liberal voters who have been turned off my Obama are thinking - "anyone but these guys."

And the Losers Are . . .

Results 2008 New Hampshire Primary

             John McCain          86,571          7 delegates

             Mitt Romney          75,546          4 delegates

             Mike Huckabee      26,859          1 delegate

             Ron Paul                  18,308         0 delegate

             Hillary Clinton        112,404        9 delegates

             Barack Obama         104,815        9 delegates

             John Edwards            48,699        4 delegates

Results 2012 New Hampshire Primary*

            Mitt Romney              97,532        7 delegates

            Ron Paul                     56,848         3 delegates

            John Huntsman         41,945        2 delegates

            Newt Gingich             loser

            Rick Santorum           loser 

            Rick Perry                   loser

*Only 12 delegates at stake reduced from 23 by the republican national committee for moving the primary up to January.

Speaking of relevance, the Jan. 31st republican primary in Florida already has more absentee ballots requests than all the votes cast in Iowa and New Hampshire combined.

2286 - number of delegates to republican convention

1144 - number of delegates to win nomination

    37 - number of delegates decided thus far

    20 - number of delegates committed to Mitt Romney

So how is it possible that Mr. Romney is now being declared the winner by so many knowledgeable sources or when did 20 become 1144?

Pie Chart Your President

Mother Jones magazine has this really cool interactive tool that allows you to predict who will win, lose or draw each of the upcoming republican presidential primaries. They call it the GOP Primary Predictor: Play Along at Home. You can prognosticate on what percentage of the votes each of the candidates will get in all of the upcoming 55 primaries.  Yes, I did say fifty-five.

Here is a list of the primaries along with my less than scientific commentary.

Jan. 3   Iowa - Santorum or Romney they don't really know yet

Jan. 10 New Hampshire - Romney wins big
Jan. 21 South Carolina - the last real chance to derail the Mitt
Jan. 31 Florida - 50/50 chance for Romney to wrap it up

Feb. 4  Nevada
Feb. 7  Colorado
Feb. 7  Minnesota
Feb. 11 Maine
Feb. 25 Mariana Islands
Feb. 28 Arizona - it's over, Romney wins both; everyone else quits
Feb. 28 Michigan - it's over, Romney wins both; everyone else quits

None of the remaining 44 primaries matter as far as the presidential nominations go

Mar. 3  Washington
Mar. 6  Alabama
Mar. 6  Georgia - March 6th: eleven states in one day with no meaning
Mar. 6  Idaho
Mar. 6  Massachusetts
Mar. 6  North Dakota
Mar. 6  Ohio
Mar. 6  Oklahoma
Mar. 6  Tennessee
Mar. 6  Vermont
Mar. 6  Virginia
Mar. 6  Virgin Islands

Mar. 10 Kansas
Mar. 10 Wyoming
Mar. 12 Guam
Mar. 13 Hawaii
Mar. 13 Mississippi
Mar. 13 American Samoa
Mar. 17 Missouri
Mar. 20 Illinois
Mar. 24 Louisiana
Mar. 24 Puerto Rico

Apr. 3  Washington
Apr. 3  Maryland
Apr. 3  Wisconsin
Apr. 6  Alaska
Apr. 6  Texas - Rick Perry who?
Apr. 24 Connecticut
Apr. 24 Delaware
Apr. 24 New York - sorry it was Romney two months ago
Apr. 24 Pennsylvania
Apr. 24 Rhode Island

May 8  Indiana
May 8  North Carolina
May 8  West Virginia
May 15 Nebraska
May 15 Oregon
May 22 Arkansas
May 22 Kentucky

June 5   California - largest single electoral state votes 3 months too late
June 5   Montana
June 5   New Jersey
June 5   New Mexico
June 5   South Dakota
June 26 Utah

Now I would be happy to be wrong about this, if only for the entertainment value a longer race would give to The Daily Show and Colbert Report. But my overall 2012 position remains the same - whether you are choosing the lesser of two evils or seven, you still get evil.