The Math for Mitt

The "fight" for the republican nomination is over, done, finished. If you would like to keep up with the current hard numbers as they emerged and to play a bit with the speculative "what if's" Here is a neat little interactive delegate counter that will allow you to fantasize about any and all possibilities - none of which rationally lead to anything other than Obama vs. Romney in November.

For me I will be ignoring the remainder of the primary season unless, as they say, a candidate gets caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. But I would like to leave each and every American citizen and those watching from around the world with this thought - there are actually hundreds of thousands of voters who actually think a woman hating, religious bigot like Rick Santorum should be President of the United States. That thought makes me cringe more than even the nightmare of Dan Quayle a heartbeat from the oval office.

Political Signage

With the ability to post a picture on Facebook available to anyone with an internet connection there is a lot of political commentary that crawls through the photoshop process before leaking out into the collective unconscious of the cyber cesspool. Most of the messages are silly or mean; partisan and generally wrong. I tend to rate them on a scale from flat-out stupid to deliciously devious. 

But every once in a great while one comes along that I just can't dismiss. I mean when politicians get so outrageous that they make both sides of their own inane argument, you just gotta marvel at what we produce in the way of political candidates. He is a brilliant example thus just defies rebuttal.

Mississippi For Instance

Yes, in Mississippi Rick Santorum got a couple more votes than the other guys.

Yes, between them the ultra-conservative Santorum and the slimy not as conservative Newt Gingrich got over 64% of the vote yesterday.

No, all of you liberals and other sane voters there is no need to worry. The wacko fringe of the republican party is not about to take over the country. Here are the numbers.

2012 Republican Primary Mississippi
Santorum         93,200
Gingrich           88,700
Romney            86,000
Paul                  12,500

Total Vote       283,000

2008 National Election Mississippi
McCain           687,266
Obama            520,864

Total Vote     1,224,000


Only the heavily motivated conservative vote turned out yesterday. The great middle of the voting public is really not "anyone but Romney" they are "anyone but Romney except not these guys." Given an actual general election between Obama and Santorum or Gingrich there are some red states that will go for the republican party but the margins will be much smaller than those McCain numbers from '08 and the overwhelming majority  of the country will be blue.

This Obama reelection scenario does not make me particularly happy but I have to admit the potential for a strong third party showing in '12 is being slowly eroded by the republican road show. The more these guys talk, the more independent and liberal voters who have been turned off my Obama are thinking - "anyone but these guys."

Make It a Clown Parade

I am going to guess that some of my readers were slightly insulted by my post yesterday in which I referred to the four remaining republican candidates as clowns.


I just wanted to set the record straight today for those who have forgotten my opinion of the current occupant of the oval office.


Don't you love farce?
My fault I fear.
I thought that you'd want what I want.
Sorry, my dear.
But where are the clowns?
Quick, send in the clowns.
Don't bother, they're here.


Apologies for taking those lyrics so far out of context, as compensation here is Judy Collins singing them correctly.

Stupor Tuesday

Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts, Idaho and Wyoming to the sad, humorless clown;


Oklahoma, North Dakota and Tennessee to the bozo who loves barefoot, pregnant, mute women;


Georgia to the oft divorced pudgy clown;

and bunch of convention votes to the libertarian floppy footed booby;

which taken all together still means what most reasonable folks have known for several months - Romney vs. Obama in November.

But it also means that the four clowns will continue to entertain awhile longer.

Half Right

Eenie Meenie Chili Beanie.

Back on January 7th I made this prediction:

Feb. 28 Arizona & Michigan - Romney wins both; everyone else quits.

I guess you could say I was half right and a week off. It will take until next Tuesday for everyone else to quit. Unless, of course, the republican faithful decide that reality politics is more fun than having a chance to actually win the fall election. But I am going with a Romney near sweep next week and everyone but Ron Paul turning out the lights.


UPDATE: My good friend and right-wing advisor tells me that: "Santorum will never quit!" He went on to suggest that the same zealotry that drove the former senator to shoot himself in his Michigan foot with JFK insults and attacks on women, that same devotion to destruction will keep him in the race long after the numbers make the Romney nomination a fact.


Therefore I will slightly modify my prediction: Ahem!


Super Tuesday March 6th: Romney in a near sweep tonight. All reasonable, rational other republican candidates (Ron Paul has already been exempted from this category) but all other such candidates will demonstrate they really do want to win the white house and will withdraw from the race to bolster the chances that their nominee will win in November. 


I should add now that anyone attempting a third party candidacy from the right is: 
a) too late because of draconian state election laws;
b) doing more to hurt the party than staying in the race would;
c) making the summer a hell of a lot more interesting - Go for It!


Now let's turn to what Americans Elect is all about.

Eight Articles of Interest

A far flung smorgasbord of information today. I'll bet even my L.A. friends can find something they will enjoy.

#1 (Goodbye Japan?)

We may yet lose Tokyo. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant continues to discharge radiation into the air and the ocean. Recent (very quiet) announcements suggested that it would take ten years to fully contain the disaster and encapsulate the radiation effects to the plant site.

#2 (Some Facts About Entitlements)

You may already know this but here is a soundly written analysis of just who collects on all the government entitlements. Contrary to all the political rhetoric, the wealthiest members of the U.S. society benefit more from government handouts than do the bottom of the economic pile. Of course the high-end giveaways generally show up as tax breaks and not silly gifts like food, medicine or child care.

#3 (A Real Second Party)

The country is starved for a grown-up debate. This NYTimes Op-Ed slams the republicans pretty hard but I ran it by my favorite right-winger and he said: "Those pinkos at the Times are my arch-enemies but this time they aren't wrong." The piece is called: We Need a Second Party

#4 (Economic Non-Truths)

Three Great Economic Misconceptions from the Motley Fool, which of these statements are true? 


"China is the biggest holder of U.S. debt." 


"The U.S. is oil dependent on the Middle East." 


"Consumers spend most of their money on junk made in China and other Far East countries."


Think you know?

#5 (It Appears We Do Know What We Want)

For those naysayers, fools, idiots and elitists who ask: "What do those people in tents want?" How about an SEC comment letter. Yep, those dirty hippies not only can write, some of them are exceptionally well educated.

#6 (Occupy Reading List)

If you are an Occupy supporter or think you might want to be. Here is an Occupy Book Reading List. It's not perfect but an interesting look at why the Occupy movement started and why it's not going away anytime soon.   

#7 (Your Cat is Making You Crazy)

Not just for cat lovers or even cat haters, but a really profound look at cross-species parasitic transfer leading to behavioral modification. Your pet's bugs may be making you change your behavior. No really! A fun article that will make you think and maybe itch a bit too.

#8 (Who is Voting in the Primaries)

A Blunt but Bias Analysis of who exactly is voting in the presidential primary races.

"There is no other way to put this without resorting to demographic bluntness: the small fraction of Americans who are trying to pick the Republican nominee are old, white, uniformly Christian and unrepresentative of the nation at large."

Unfortunately this article stretches the numbers to make most of it's strangled points. Take for instance this statement: "In Florida, 84 percent of the state’s total registered voters  did not participate in the Republican contest." A shocking number if you didn't know that Florida holds a closed primary, so democrats and independents were not eligible to vote in the republican contest. Only 36% of registered voters in Florida self designate as republican, so factually an honest reporting would have said mentioned that 16% of the potential 36% republican vote turned out; not 16% of 100%.

Cold, Cold Heart

While I continue to ponder and wallow in the future of this blog, I thought I might offer up a bit more of the reasoning behind this reevaluation. Don't turn away from this insightful and factual article by Kathy Kelly about her pending excursion to Afghanistan. I promise it will make you reconsider your day if not your life whether you are in Florida, Michigan, Brazil or Oz.

Cold, Cold Heart by Kathy Kelly.

"I tried so hard my dear to show that you're my only dream

                                         Yet you're afraid each thing I do is just some evil scheme.

A memory from your lonesome past keeps us so far apart.

Why can't I free your doubtful mind, and melt your cold, cold heart?"

A Question for the Ladies

I mean this question in all seriousness. If you are a woman how can you possibly consider voting for the republicans? They are quite openly attacking you in thought, word and deed. This does not mean I suggest you vote for Barack, that argument will come later; but let's just focus on what the republicans are doing to revive the gender wars.

They really did hold a congressional hearing on contraception to hear only from all male religious leaders, several of whom are celibate. They really have targeted cutting funds from women's clinics because, of course, they might offer advice on birth control. Ditto child care, equal pay provisions and let's not forget the increasing incidence of rape in the military.

Oh right, there is the other half of today's question: If you are a man who lives with, cares for or loves a woman; if you have a sister, aunt, mother, niece or a female friend; how can you possibly consider voting for the republicans who seem to hate these women?
---
That's some of Matt Bors' cartoon work above. If you haven't found him yet, he may be the Gary Larson of this generation.

Art & The Other Guy

How good is your presidential memory?

Really you forgot these two already?

I know, I know - Florida!

Bob Dole and Jack Kemp '96

A one term Bush.

George H.W. beat these guys.

Buried under the Reagan "Landslide"

No reelection for Carter.

No one could have won in the shadow of Nixon.

Now say these out loud, very slowly:

President McCain

President Kerry

President Dole

President Gore

President Dukakis

President Mondale

President Romney

President Gingrich

President Santorum

President Paul

President Bachmann

President Cain

...now go wash your mouth out with something very strong and no spitting.

All the News That's Fit to Slant

I am going to guess that most everyone who comes near this blog knows that the Main Stream Media slant the news. If you don't think that is true or think that only Fox does it but CNN doesn't or vica versa visa flip-flop then I have to question if you are really interesting in a serious debate about what is wrong in America these days.

So what has got me riled up about MSM reporting - well it's Occupy and Fox News. Two weekends ago there was another big dust-up at Occupy Oakland; the police were out of control (408 arrests, only 12 charged), many injuries. Yes, the anarchists were out as well; bottles were thrown etc. It was not a good situation for anyone, but one side has guns, tear gas, batons and no accountability. I was there. OPD attacked a peaceful march lead by several women with their children. A protest march with no violence, no blocking of traffic, no violations of law whatsoever.

The next day I was watching some of the local reporting and the Fox News local anchor said: "One has to wonder why Oakland still has these Occupy protests when the rest of the country has moved on." Call it spin, call it slanting the news or call it what it really is - lying to the public. Fox News wants Occupy to go away, so underreporting the truth about the protests is the Fox way to a "fair and balanced" delivery of their truth.

I actually drafted this post and then thought better of posting it. I mean who doesn't know that Fox and CNN and MSNBC etc. etc. all have their own agendas and are not simply reporting the news and events of the day, particularly when it comes to anything political. We know it and either we reject the MSM or we watch like sheep the programs and reports we blindly agree with.

But then the National Parks police came out in a show of force against the Occupy encampment in Washington D.C. and national Fox News reported: "One of the last dwindling Occupy encampments is being dismantled by the National Parks Service." The report went on to deride the Park Police for waiting so long to remove the illegal encampment and suggested they might be supporters of Occupy which would be a violation of the law in itself.

To be fair, I checked the other major MSM for "news" on the D.C. Occupy camp:

CBS - "one of the last remaining Occupy sites."

NBC - "Occupy DC is part of a larger activist movement that began last year in New York and quickly spread across the country."


ABC - "The D.C. encampment is one of the few camps still standing after the Occupy Wall Street movement began in New York City's Zuccotti Park on Sept. 17."


CNN - read the ABC post above which uses direct quotes from the CNN Wire report, which in itself is interesting because Disney owns ABC but Time-Warner owns CNN.

Should you like to hear the current news about the Occupy Movement slanted from the other side - read this article.

I'm Just Sayin'

Is it me or are some organizations actually beginning to pay attention? First SOPA and now this, before you know it someone will run for president and not lie every time they open their mouth.

A Fine Way to Pick a President

Just to bring you up to date on how the citizens of America Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida have gone about picking a republican to run against the current president.

Total Republican Votes in Iowa  - 123,000
Total Republican Votes in N.H.  - 248,000
Total Republican Votes in S.C.   - 604,000
Votes for just Romney in Florida - 772,000

Mitt Romney 'won' the Florida primary with 46% of the vote. He 'won' with less than a majority but got all the delegates from Florida. He got more votes in Florida than all the votes cast for him in the three previous primaries. He ran some of the foulest ads that anyone has ever seen in political primaries. He still has less than 100 delegates with over 1400 needed to win the nomination, but we are now being told by the talking heads that the race is over.

Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina - this is how we pick presidents? Why don't we run the nominating process like American Idol and let everyone text their choice? I would have suggested voting them off the island a la Survivor but seeing Santorum with a torch would make it just too easy for the political cartoonists.

The Olde Middle

"On everything but the size of government, Tea Party supporters are increasingly out of step with most Americans, even many Republicans. Indeed, at the opposite end of the ideological spectrum, today’s Tea Party parallels the anti-Vietnam War movement which rallied behind George S. McGovern in 1972. The McGovernite activists brought energy, but also stridency, to the Democratic Party — repelling moderate voters and damaging the Democratic brand for a generation. By embracing the Tea Party, Republicans risk repeating history." 
-David E. Campbell & Robert N. Putnam          
NYTimes Commentary Aug. 2011

I've been saving that quotation in my blog queue since last August. Campbell & Putnam wrote a book - American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us, the New York Times commentary piece was the beginning of their promotional tour. I considered reading the book after running into a number of other promo lectures and appearances last fall but the quote above kept bothering me.

I have thought about what it was exactly and today I hit on it. They have managed in a few sentences to insult and condemn anyone who seeks to stand against the status quo of the two party system. Too far right or too far left and you just repel the moderates and damage the party for years. 

Well boys you are talking about the "moderate middle" that doesn't exist anymore. As the "middle class" fell, so did the "political middle" and the "olde middle" ain't coming back, at least not quietly and not in the hip pocket of republicrats. About the only thing "the middle" is good for anymore is for finding political apologists like Campbell & Putnam and tossing them on the scrap heap of olde political wisdom.

The game has changed gentlemen and you are still reading from the rule book of the "olde middle."

The System That Couldn't Count

We hear these same platitudes each and every election cycle.

"Voting is your civic duty!"

    "If you don't vote, don't complaint."

"Voting is our greatest right as free citizens!"

The problem is that "Your Vote Counts" are empty words if there is no one responsible enough to accurately and fairly count the votes. Once again we see, this time in Iowa, that addition is a really difficult task for some members of our society. And we seem to allow these math challenged people to run our elections.

Apparently Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucus a couple of weeks ago but Mitt Romney got the boost going into New Hampshire when the counting in Iowa went less than perfectly. Now it seems that eight precincts in Iowa have completely lost their ballots so the republican party of Iowa is calling it a draw, a tie, a non-decision. But what we really have is an admission that there was no fair and legal vote in Iowa. Voters in 8 precincts have had their "greatest right" which they exercised as their "civic duty" - well for lack of a better word - 'lost' or perhaps 'taken away' or simply 'not counted.'

After all the sound and fury, after all the campaign noize and money spewed around Iowa for over a year, they couldn't count the damn votes. OK, so it was only Iowa. But need I remind you that we had a similar problem a few years ago in Florida, which led to the supreme court picking the president.

Now I am sure my liberal friends are waiting for me to go off on the current republican campaign to restrict voter access in the November election. Yes, of course, they are doing that - it's called politics. Need I remind you that the democrats feel you need only be breathing to vote, which of course leads to voter fraud on the other side of the shaky two-party scale. Sorry partisan folks, I just don't care. Why should I? Why should you? Have you not been paying attention - the vote is not fixed by who does or doesn't get to enter the sanctuary of the polling place; the vote is fixed by who does or doesn't do the counting.

It's all about the math and who is holding the abacus in a few key states. You trust this system? Really? Ask the voters in Iowa.

Closed for Today

Much of the internet is dark today to protest a grossly overreaching bill in the US Congress. While the bill purports to halt online piracy, it does so at the expense of free speech and gives unnamed and unknown government agencies the right to shut down any part of the net they feel threatens whatever they believe should not be threatened. Egypt, Libya, China and other countries have attempted to shutdown free speech over the internet when those fine examples of democracy felt that their citizens should not be speaking up about the restriction of human rights.

This is not a justified cause of governmental authority and needs to be stopped. Email your senators and tell them you oppose Protect IP Act in the senate and contact your house member as they consider the Stop Internet Piracy (SOPA) act in the house. 

Do It Tomorrow

Tomorrow marks another in a year-long list of Occupy actions to bring economic sanity and fairness back to the American people. If you are in or around Washington D.C. please consider participating in any of the planned events for Occupy Congress.

Not in the capitol area, then take a moment to write to your elected senators and congresspersons and ask them to take the time meet with Occupy members who are there to make our needs known.

We can't all be there for every demonstration or every cause, but we can lend our support and our voice to those who are. Do It Tomorrow.

Find contact information for your congressional representatives.

Top Seven Articles of the Recent Past

Here are seven of the best articles I have surfed across in the past month or so. With my added commentary of course.

#1 (Politics)*

"In the wake of the Tea Party, the Occupy movement, and a dozen or more episodes of real rebellion on the streets, in the legislatures of cities and towns, and in state and federal courthouses, this presidential race now feels like a banal bureaucratic sideshow to the real event – the real event being a looming confrontation between huge masses of disaffected citizens on both sides of the aisle, and a corrupt and increasingly ideologically bankrupt political establishment, represented in large part by the two parties dominating this race."

-from The Meaningless Sideshow Begins in Rolling Stone


*This comes as close as anything to capturing my own rationale for and disgust with the 2012 U.S. election.

#2 (Media)

We all know that what passes for Main Stream Media has become at best infotaintment, if not outright sleazy reality tv instead of news. But have you noticed recently that the political stories, particularly those on the presidential election have become more like the Sunday NFL pregame show. The SportsCenterization of Politics.

#3 (Psychology)

Bloomberg.com asks and answers the burning question: Did Psychopaths Take Over Wall Street?


"It took a relatively obscure former British academic to propagate a theory of the financial crisis that would confirm what many people suspected all along: The “corporate psychopaths” at the helm of our financial institutions are to blame."

#4 (Politics)

This next one is a book review from the New York Times, but before my conservative readers pass this one by... let me say that you will probably like this a lot more than my liberal visitors. Take for instance this quote:

"President Obama has betrayed the voters who elected him. He ran like a populist, but he has governed like a plutocrat, or at least a friend of plutocrats."


What I liked most about this piece was the rolling argument the reviewer has with the "liberal elitist" views of Thomas Frank, the author of the book - Pity the Billionaire. Very informative to see the left wrestling with itself.

#5 (Tech)

This one comes from Tina Fields a good friend of mine. Her post is about the reaction she had to a really wonderful radio piece by Mike Daisey. I recommend my friend's blog post as a contextual teaser to the actual radio program which can be found on NPR's This American Life website. Both of these links are mandatory for progressive Mac users.

#6 (Marginalia & Fun)

If you are a fan of marginalia and fun (both are necessary) take a look at this NYT piece on both. And did you know you can share marginalia between many eReaders, which means if you and I are reading the same book on your kindle we can trade liner notes. I understand the archives of several great marginalists (Twain, Coleridge, Plath, Nabokov, Melville) are planning to make such available for eReaders.

#7 (Bizarro)

The estate of a deceased teenage boy is being sued by a woman who has hit by parts of the dead youths body after he was struck and killed by a locomotive. Really you just can't make these things up. The Illinois court ruled that the boy's death was "reasonably foreseeable" and that his estate (no he wasn't rich) can be held responsible for his negligence. Full story.

And the Losers Are . . .

Results 2008 New Hampshire Primary

             John McCain          86,571          7 delegates

             Mitt Romney          75,546          4 delegates

             Mike Huckabee      26,859          1 delegate

             Ron Paul                  18,308         0 delegate

             Hillary Clinton        112,404        9 delegates

             Barack Obama         104,815        9 delegates

             John Edwards            48,699        4 delegates

Results 2012 New Hampshire Primary*

            Mitt Romney              97,532        7 delegates

            Ron Paul                     56,848         3 delegates

            John Huntsman         41,945        2 delegates

            Newt Gingich             loser

            Rick Santorum           loser 

            Rick Perry                   loser

*Only 12 delegates at stake reduced from 23 by the republican national committee for moving the primary up to January.

Speaking of relevance, the Jan. 31st republican primary in Florida already has more absentee ballots requests than all the votes cast in Iowa and New Hampshire combined.

2286 - number of delegates to republican convention

1144 - number of delegates to win nomination

    37 - number of delegates decided thus far

    20 - number of delegates committed to Mitt Romney

So how is it possible that Mr. Romney is now being declared the winner by so many knowledgeable sources or when did 20 become 1144?

Pie Chart Your President

Mother Jones magazine has this really cool interactive tool that allows you to predict who will win, lose or draw each of the upcoming republican presidential primaries. They call it the GOP Primary Predictor: Play Along at Home. You can prognosticate on what percentage of the votes each of the candidates will get in all of the upcoming 55 primaries.  Yes, I did say fifty-five.

Here is a list of the primaries along with my less than scientific commentary.

Jan. 3   Iowa - Santorum or Romney they don't really know yet

Jan. 10 New Hampshire - Romney wins big
Jan. 21 South Carolina - the last real chance to derail the Mitt
Jan. 31 Florida - 50/50 chance for Romney to wrap it up

Feb. 4  Nevada
Feb. 7  Colorado
Feb. 7  Minnesota
Feb. 11 Maine
Feb. 25 Mariana Islands
Feb. 28 Arizona - it's over, Romney wins both; everyone else quits
Feb. 28 Michigan - it's over, Romney wins both; everyone else quits

None of the remaining 44 primaries matter as far as the presidential nominations go

Mar. 3  Washington
Mar. 6  Alabama
Mar. 6  Georgia - March 6th: eleven states in one day with no meaning
Mar. 6  Idaho
Mar. 6  Massachusetts
Mar. 6  North Dakota
Mar. 6  Ohio
Mar. 6  Oklahoma
Mar. 6  Tennessee
Mar. 6  Vermont
Mar. 6  Virginia
Mar. 6  Virgin Islands

Mar. 10 Kansas
Mar. 10 Wyoming
Mar. 12 Guam
Mar. 13 Hawaii
Mar. 13 Mississippi
Mar. 13 American Samoa
Mar. 17 Missouri
Mar. 20 Illinois
Mar. 24 Louisiana
Mar. 24 Puerto Rico

Apr. 3  Washington
Apr. 3  Maryland
Apr. 3  Wisconsin
Apr. 6  Alaska
Apr. 6  Texas - Rick Perry who?
Apr. 24 Connecticut
Apr. 24 Delaware
Apr. 24 New York - sorry it was Romney two months ago
Apr. 24 Pennsylvania
Apr. 24 Rhode Island

May 8  Indiana
May 8  North Carolina
May 8  West Virginia
May 15 Nebraska
May 15 Oregon
May 22 Arkansas
May 22 Kentucky

June 5   California - largest single electoral state votes 3 months too late
June 5   Montana
June 5   New Jersey
June 5   New Mexico
June 5   South Dakota
June 26 Utah

Now I would be happy to be wrong about this, if only for the entertainment value a longer race would give to The Daily Show and Colbert Report. But my overall 2012 position remains the same - whether you are choosing the lesser of two evils or seven, you still get evil.